Friday, January 22, 2010

More on China's Soft Power

China's growing soft power has not always obtained the effect that Beijing had intended, and had at times even led to bouts of resentment.

First, there is the perception that China is acting "rapaciously" for instance in Nigeria where militants in the Niger Delta have warned Chinese investors that they will be "treated as thieves" robbing Nigerians of their valuable oil resources – a charge the militants previously laid against Western companies. (Joshua Kurlantzick, Charm Offensive How China’s Soft Power Is Transforming the World, Yale University Press, 2007)

In the Nigerian commercial capital of Lagos (pictured), police had reportedly expelled Chinese migrants from local markets because of complaints that Chinese goods were undercutting local products.

In Zambia, the populist politician Michael Sata rallied support among the poor by claiming that Chinese imports were undercutting Zambian products, while Zambian companies cannot export any finished goods to China.

In Thailand, Thai farmers faced difficulties selling their products to China, even as Chinese agricultural products flooded into Thailand.

In Brazil, several anti-dumping clauses and safeguards against categories of Chinese exports were filed against China.

In Ecuador, the government passed laws to limit Chinese investment, and potential competition from China was said to be a reason why Central American nations signed a 2005 free trade agreement with the United States, since it was believed that this might encourage some garment companies to keep production in the hemisphere rather than switching to China.

Then there is also China's export of its environmental problems.

China was reportedly keen to fund (or may have already funded?) a massive Burmese dam without undertaking environmental studies, while China's Export-Import Bank was said to have decline to sign environmental guidelines commonly adopted by credit providers from Western nations.

In northern Laos, a consultant with the Asian Development Bank noted that Chinese firms tasked to build part of the country's new highway simply refused to produce any environmental impact assessment.

As for the Mekong River which China had build dams and "blasted" parts of the river, scientists estimate that fish catches in part of the river have fallen by half, while the giant Mekong catfish, a monstrous creature that can top 600 pounds, may soon become extinct.

"Whole stretches of the Mekong, which must support a growing human population that could double within thirty years, are becoming too dry for farming."

And then there's China's purported lack of transparency and good governance in its aid, infrastructure and business dealings with recipient countries. "In other words, how Chinese companies act at home reflects how they may act overseas."

In Cambodia, local activists accuse both the Cambodian government and Wuzhishan, a Chinese state-linked firm, of forcing hundreds of villagers off their land in a province known as Mondulkiri.

Critics argued that Wuzhishan sprayed the area, which included ancestral burial areas, with dangerous herbicides. "The government and the company have disregarded the well-being, culture, and livelihoods of the … indigenous people," said the United Nations' special representative for human rights in Cambodia.

In the Central African Republic, China provided key assistance to the regime in 2003 following a coup. This had reportedly allowed the regime to tighten its rule, and could lead "average citizens in Africa, and in other regions, to question whether Beijing really is a power that does not interfere in nations’ affairs."

"After all, if China uses its influence to support elites in countries like the Central African Republic or Cambodia, to the detriment of average people, it is very clearly interfering."

But thankfully, and perhaps to China's credit, it has come to the realization that Chinese support for authoritarian regimes can create instability for China in the long run.

For instance in Burma, the junta's "backward, erratic rule" had not only created the drug and HIV crises that threaten China, but also endangered Chinese businessmen who were never certain when the political situation will turn violent.

"Fearful of Burma's instability, Chinese officials have not only cracked down on gambling and drugs in the China-Burma frontier but also pushed for political reform inside Burma … Even more surprising, Beijing has allowed Burma's human rights crisis to be placed on the agenda of the U.N. Security Council, a momentous decision for a country skeptical of allowing the United Nations to meddle in other nations' affairs."

More pertinently, the Burma example is said to be a case whereby China can increasingly use its soft power to improve stability in places where the United States has little influence. Having Chinese and the Americans prod these countries means that countries like Burma and North Korea cannot simply write off foreign pressure as "merely an American initiative."

"China is especially likely to use its influence when Beijing fears that instability in another nation could spill over into China, either by spreading drugs and disease (Burma), or by causing massive refugee flows (North Korea), or by exacerbating terrorism (Central Asia) – and when those countries do not possess significant amount of oil, gas, or other resources."

As Kurlantzick noted, in the long run, China's relations with countries like Sudan could come back to haunt Beijing. If countries like Sudan or Zimbabwe ever made the transition to freer governments, China could face a "sizable backlash" for its past support of authoritarian rulers, just as the United States faced left-leaning governments in Latin America resentful of past U.S. backing for conservative Latin dictators. This is also said to be one reason why Chinese officials have begun cultivating contacts with opposition activists in countries like Burma.

"Don't you think that if Burma became a democracy all the leaders might remember who helped keep them in jail before?" asked one Burma activist. "There could be an immediate popular backlash against all the Chinese businesses and officials in Burma."

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