Tuesday, January 01, 2008

China's Fifth Generation Leadership


In an article titled Leadership Fifth Generation, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Cheng Li noted that collective leadership in China is a dynamic and pluralistic decision-making process through which political leaders can represent various social and geographic contingencies.

"The rise of collective leadership may result in fewer policies aimed at maximizing GDP growth rates at all costs, such as the huge costs in terms of environmental degradation that have been seen in the reform era. Instead, it may give way to policies that provide due consideration to both economic efficiency and social justice," Li wrote.

But despite the potential, collective leadership presents a major challenge for the CCP in two areas. On the policy front, conflicting interests and competing policy initiatives may make the decision-making process lengthier, more complicated, and perhaps even leading to deadlocks.

"At a time when China confronts many tough choices over issues such as the regional redistribution of resources, the construction of a public health care system, environmental protection, financial reforms, and disputes over foreign trade, the Chinese leadership may find it increasingly difficult to reach consensus."

On the political front, although the diverse demographic, educational and administrative backgrounds of China's top leaders are positive developments that may contribute to political pluralism, the history of contemporary China has shown that differences in the career experiences of political leaders are often the source of tension and conflict.

But having said that, Li aruged that because of the new leaders' differences in expertise, credentials and experiences, contending elite groups will realize that they need to find ways to coexist in order to govern effectively.

"The common interest in domestic social stability and shared aspiration to further China's rise on the world stage may make collective leadership both feasible and sustainable."

Neverthless, Li noted that Chinese elite politics is no longer a zero-sum game. The collective leadership is crucial not only because it leads to intra-party democracy, it also reveals how the governance of the most populous nation in the world in changing and evolving. "Given China's long history of arbitrary-decision making by one individual leader, collective leadership represents a big step forward."

Both Xi Jinping (习近平, pictured) and Li Keqiang (李克强) joined the CCP in the mid-1970s, hold PhD degrees, have been on the Central Committee of the Party for 10 years, and have served as party secretaries for two provincial level administrations.

While Xi was born into the family of a prominent Communist veteran leader, Li comes from a humble family background. Xi made giant strides in his career through urban economic administration while Li advanced his political career largely through the Chinese Communist Youth League.

While Xi ran some of the most advanced economic regions in the country such as Fujian, Zhejiang and Shanghai, Li's provincial experiences were in agricultural Henan, and then in rustbelt industrial-base Liaoning.

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