South Korea's Presidential Elections

In the wake of Lee Myung-bak's electoral victory in yesterday's South Korea presidential elections, Washington-based analysts offered their analysis in a talk held at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars.

Charles Armstrong noted that even though Lee is a conservative, he is hardly a traditional Korean conservative, and is unlikely to reject the policies of the previous two administrations. He also noted that Lee's popularity is widely spread out among all age groups, which is a sharp contrast to opponent Lee Hoi Chang who "found it hard to attract people below 50 years old."

On how Lee will deal with North Korea, Armstrong predicted that Lee will demand more reciprocity from the reclusive regime. Armstrong noted that North Korea is not an issue in this election due to the lack of discernible differences among the candidates. In fact, Lee even came across as more attractive because of his Hyundai background. Moreover, young South Koreans perceive North Korea "neither with fear or affection, but mainly indifference."

As for the implications of Lee's win on the United States, Armstrong predicted that Lee, who is pro-American, will improve relations with the US. But a few areas of friction remain, and these include redeployment of US Forces in South Korea, the issue of North Korea, and whether the US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement will be passed by Congress, and if not, how this would affect bilateral trade and even ties.

Armstrong also noted that Lee is not a throwback to the past, and there will not be a return to the "good old days of the US-ROK alliance."

Other analysts noted that despite political reforms over the years, South Korea's political system still remains fluid, and such fluidity will be an obstacle for improving corporate governance and tackling corruption. One analyst also predicted a revival of an imperial presidency where there is strong leadership in setting economic direction, though that in itself is not incompatible with improving corporate governance and ensuring better coordination between government ministries.

An imperial presidency will also promote business policies to encourage business and growth. But in the case of Lee, analysts believe it might be difficult for the president-elect, given his CEO background, to push for tough and difficult corporate and governmental reforms.