Analysis of the 17th Party Congress

Brookings Institution's Cheng Li delivered an interesting analysis earlier this week on the recent 17th Communist Party Congress.

Among other things, Li pointed to the emergence and co-existence of two powerful coalitions - the populists versus the elitists.

The former is largely the tuanpai (团派), or the base of Hu Jintao (胡锦涛), and comprise mainly of party functionalists, new left intellectuals, rural leaders, and provincial leaders.

The latter consists of princelings, the Shanghai Gang, entrepreneurs, returnees, and urban leaders from coastal regions.

As Li observed, the "One Party Two Coalitions" are made up of two different political and geographical regions. The two would not just fight for power, but also jostle for control of different bases, priorities and political initiatives. But since both sides are said to complement each other in terms of skills and expertise, there is expected to be both confrontation and cooperation.

Li also gave a breakdown of the percentage of new faces who emerged at the 17th Party Congress.

Among the 371-member - 204 full, and 167 alternate - Central Committee, 62.5% were newly co-opted. In the 25-member Politburo, 40% were newcomers. As for the nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, 44.4% were first-time entrants.

Turning to the their age groups, 42.6% were born in the 1940s, 49.9% in the 1950s, and 6.7% in the 1960s.

There was also a marked decline in the proportion of technocrats in the Politburo - from 75% in the last Politburo to 40% in the current one. For instance, both Xi Jinping (习近平, pictured) and Li Keqiang (李克强) were legally trained, while Wang Yang (汪洋), Wang Qishan (王岐山) and Bo Xilai (薄熙来) studied management, history and journalism respectively.

As for the percentage of Politburo members with provincial backgrounds, the numbers had increased steadily over the last few congresses. From 50% to 59.1%, and then from 66.7% to 76%.

And even though the proportion of those from the military remained constant, over two-thirds are new faces.

As for entrepreneurs, they doubled from 9 to 18, and include First Auto's Zhu Yanfeng, Sinopec's Su Shulin, Shanghai Bao Steel's Xu Lejiang, and Haier's Zhang Ruimin (张瑞敏).

Many in the Politburo (49%) also had experience as mishus (or secretaries to former or current leaders). These include Ling Jihua who used to work for Hu Jintao, and Lou Jiwei (楼继伟) who used to work for Zhu Rongji (朱镕基).

There has also been an increase in the number of tuanpai and princelings in the new Central Commitee - from 50 to 56.

Composition and Characteristics of Tuanpai:

Members include Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Wang Zhaoguo (王兆国), Liu Yunshan (刘云山), Wang Yang, Liu Yandong (刘延东), Li Yuanchao (李源潮) and WLQ.

They represent party organization, propaganda, a united front, law and party discipline and provincial leadership. They embrace social cohesion, a harmonious society, more balanced regional development, a "green" GDP, and paying more attention to vulnerable groups such as farmers, elderly, and the poor.

Composition and Characteristics of Princelings:

Members include Xi Jinping, Zhou Yongkang (周永康), YZS, Wang Qishan, and Bo Xilai.

They represent economic development, foreign trade and finance, foreign affairs, education, science and technology, and public security. They embrace economic efficiency, a coastal development strategy, and rapid GDP growth. They also represent the middle class and entrepreneurs, and are less concerned about environmental and social dislocations.

As Li pointed out, the current dual succession policy model is a departure from the past, and is a reflection of both Hu Jintao's preference and restraints.

Turning to the two apparent heirs to Hu, Li noted that Xi Jinping is seen as first among equals. Xi had experience in running three advanced coastal regions, and is popular among local and foreign business communities. Xi also has military ties, a celebrity wife - popular singer Peng Liyuan (彭丽媛) - and is said to be good at self-promotion and political campaigns. But Xi's weaknesses include being a princeling, his helicopter rise to power, the fact that he had received the fewest votes during the 15th Congress, a worker-peasant-soldier past, a lack of a solid political network, a lack of leadership experience in the inner provinces, and even his PhD which was apparently attained on a part-time basis. The latter, coupled with his worker-peasant-soldier background rendered him almost illiterate in the eyes of some Chinese.

Issues close to the heart of Xi include promoting the private sector, supporting market liberalizations, high GDP, and China's integration into the world economy.

As for Li Keqiang, he has the longest tenure in the Party's Central Committee, and his ties with Hu Jintao goes back a quarter of a century. Li is expected to inherit a large and fairly cohesive political network. He has strong credentials in running two important provinces - Henan (河南) and Liaoning (辽宁) - though he seemed to have a string of bad luck when AIDS became rampant in Henan and large scale accidents occured in Liaoning during his tenures. Apart from his low-profile personality, Li is also seen as a carbon copy of Hu, and is described as lacking the boldness to make tough decisions. He also does not have strong credentials in foreign trade.

Issues close to Li's heart include increasing employment and job opportunities, reduce income disparity, offer more affordable housing, and establishing a Northeast Asia free trade zone.

Turning to the likely successors for the Communist Party School, Li envisaged that it would either be Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang or Li Yuanchao.

In conclusion, Li noted that the time is ripe for the CCP to establish a more institutionalized checks and balance system within the party leadership. But he also warned of a succession crisis if Hu and the CCP cannot ride the two horses - or manage the two coalitions - at the same time.