Should Hu Appoint An "Emperor-In-Waiting"?

More speculative trivial about the Chinese Communist Party congress which is in session this week.

Chinese writer Hu Shaojiang (胡少江) noted that when Hu Jintao (胡锦涛) was appointed by Deng Xiaoping (邓小平) to be "emperor-in-waiting", the late leader had deliberately placed a considerable "distance" between Hu and Hu's contemporaries.

When Hu was appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee, Wu Bangguo (吴邦国) was "merely" a regional leader, Wen Jiabao (温家宝) was an alternative Politburo Committee member, while Zeng Qinghong (曾庆红) was only a ministerial cadre.

But according to the writer, whoever that will be designated "emperor-in-waiting" by Hu Jintao will not have the "good fortune" of the current President. Firstly, Hu does not have strong military and political credentials, as compared to Deng, and therefore his ability to appoint is weakened. Secondly, even disregarding the issue of CCP's legitimacy in China, many obviously do not think that Hu has the right to legally appoint a "leader-in-waiting."

Quoted by Radio Free Asia, the writer added: "新王储的这种先天性合法性危机, 不仅会使他在王储的位置上如坐针毯, 即使他有可能真的继承了大位, 也未必能够逃脱华国锋的命运."

("With such a congenital legitimacy crisis, the new emperor-in-waiting will not only feel as if he's sitting on a carpet lined with needles. Even if he has the chance of eventually succeeding the grand throne, he might not be able to escape Hua Guofeng's fate.")

Another thing to be borne in mind, according to the writer, is that current successors to Hu Jintao do not have impressive political credentials, and none of them has a significant edge over the other. Furthermore, it is unlikely that any one of them will gladly allow another to lord over them, so to speak - whether Li Keqiang (李克强), Xi Jinping (习近平), Wang Yang (汪洋), Li Yuanchao (李源潮), Bo Xilai (薄熙来), or Wang Qishan (王岐山).

As the writer concluded, if Hu Jintao is "rational", he might abandon the system of appointing an "emperor-in-waiting." If he persists in doing so, not only will the fate of the "emperor-in-waiting" be uncertain, the internal competitive politics of the CCP will also be thrown into jeopardy.

Such competitive politics, the writer noted, will not be allow players to display their leadership abilities. Rather, it will further erode CCP's legitimate rule on power.