Huang Ju

I usually do not reproduce rumors. But since this is a blog ... oh well.

China Politburo Standing Committee member Huang Ju (黄菊, pictured) is said to be seriously ill for some time now. That is no rumor.

Earlier this month, Phoenix TV and Reuters even reported that Huang had died of cancer. But Chinese authorities later said that the reports were inaccurate.

But according to an analysis I came across this week, the sensitivity surrounding Huang's illness has very much to do with 1) the composition of the Shanghai faction, and 2) how this composition might impact on the personnel reshuffle during the impending 17th Party Congress which must be held by the end of this year.

The analysis noted that since ex-Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu (陈良宇) was censured and fired for misdemeanors last year, Huang and his wife were also accused of corruption.

According to the analysis, Hu Jintao (胡锦涛) and Wen Jiabao (温家宝) had given Huang two options - 1) step down, or 2) divorce.

But Huang refused to comply and despite his ill-health, even made a few public appearances. The last appearance was during the National People's Congress (NPC) session held in March. But according to the analysis, Hu and Wen tried to avoid shaking hands with Huang during the session.

While speaking at the Shanghai meeting of the NPC session, Huang even reportedly argued in a passionate tone that "all important decisions must be looked into and decided by the collective, and should not be arbitrarily decided by one person."

The comment was said to be directed at both Hu and Wen. It was also meant to be a boost to the seemingly weakened Shanghai faction.

The analysis also noted that Wu Yi (吴仪) had already taken over the responsibilities of Huang, mainly in the areas of economics and finance.

The analysis added that the authorities are currently agonizing over the wording of Huang's obituary. If the obituary is positively written, it will make it difficult to eventually "conclude" Chen's misdemeanor case.

But if the obituary is too negatively written, it would go against the tradition of letting bygones be bygones. It would also go against the policy of "soft landing" for future errant officials. The policy must have recently been put in place, in light of Chen's "hard landing".

The analysis concluded that Huang's critical illness is yet another setback to the Shanghai faction, and the disintegration of the faction is said to be a matter of time.

Any truth to these rumors and their conclusions remain to be seen!