Resolving the North Korean Nuclear Crisis - Libyan vs Ukraine Model

In an article, John S. Park noted that while the United States and Japan advocated the use of the Libyan model as a potential solution for the North Korean nuclear crisis; China, South Korea, Russia and North Korea on the other hand, looked to Ukraine as a potential model.

Under the Libyan model, Libya gave up its nascent nuclear weapons program in 2003 in return for admission into the international system. This, according to the U.S., was a clear indication that "offering carrots against the background of a hard-line approach bolsters international non-proliferation efforts." ("Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks," The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2005)

But the Ukraine model, on the other hand, works through persuasion, rather than coercion. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine, based on its territory, inherited Soviet nuclear missiles, and overnight became a "formidable de facto nuclear power."

Concerned by the prospect of nuclear proliferation, the U.S. and Russia jointly persuaded Ukraine that dismantling its inherited nuclear arsenal would be more advantageous than retaining it. And to further allay Ukraine's concern, the former Soviet republic was offered a multilateral security guarantee, and other economic rewards.

If only I had known all these in Beijing in 2003 ...