China's Military Modernization and Taiwan

The United States' margin of superiority, whether in terms of technical capabilities and power projection will diminish over the next 15 years, and this means that Washington and its allies will be increasingly forced to make difficult decisions and choices.

This was the view of Richard Fisher who spoke earlier this week in Washington D.C. on China's military modernization and its implications for Taiwan. Fisher is vice-president and director of the International Assessment and Strategy Center's Project on Asian Security and Democracy.

Fisher noted that China is building a world class military complex and global military reach, and that Beijing's acquisition of anti-access capabilities will increasingly slow down the ability of U.S. and its allies in coming to Taiwan's aid.

Pointing to China's increasing military buildup, Fisher said that Beijing has been spending more on high-tech weaponry, and that the country's exploration of outer space was mainly for military purposes and gains.

Fisher also suggested that should China decide to take over Taiwan by force, the decision would be made not on the actual cross-strait military situation, but rather on what he described as the "vicious political warfare inside of the Chinese Communist Party" so that the Communist leaders can "stay in power for another generation."

"If that's the case, the U.S. will not get there (Taiwan), and even if we do, we may not be win," said. Fisher, a former Asian studies director of the Heritage Foundation.

Hence, it is pertinent for Taiwan to assess what it requires militarily. Fisher argued that Taiwan's military modernization is long overdue and this had inadvertently placed the island and its people in jeopardy.

Speaking to an audience comprised mainly of Taiwanese officials, Fisher added: "The promises that Beijing had made about ensuring your livelihood, independence and prosperity are not worth the words that they are spoken. You must deter the Chinese decision to destroy you."

In reply to a question on whether Chinese President Hu Jintao has absolute power over the People's Liberation Army, Fisher described the civilian and military leadership as "one and the same", and all part of a "gangster organization."

He later elaborated that the aim of the behemoth was "dedicated to keeping the Party in power", and that the military had basically been "bought off by the Party."

Fisher was confident that so long as prosperity and economic growth is maintained, it is highly unlikely that the military would turn against the civilian leadership. The only exception is when the military leaders loses confidence in their civilian counterparts, such as during a crisis involving Taiwan.